Presidential Election: Risks

 31.05.2011

The Institute for Public Policy interviewed a number of politicians, experts, representatives of the mass media and NGOs about the potential risks connected with upcoming presidential election in Kyrgyzstan.

Politicians, civil sector, experts and media representatives noted some of the most serious risks:

Division on a regional basis

Almost all respondents indicated that a serious threat to the stable development of the country could be the use of a "regional problem."

Felix Kulov, deputy of the Jogorku Kenesh, leader of the "Ar-Namys" faction, emphasized, "We must face the truth - this might happen, but we must soften the negative impact of this factor, which our politicians like to use."

According to Raya Kadyrova, head of the "For International Tolerance" foundation, "Both northern and southern political clans understand that they should nominate a single candidate, otherwise they would not win the presidential election." "Regional division will not bring any positive results. Only the team that will be oriented toward partnership between the north and the south can win. Any manifestation of regionalism is doomed to failure," said Kadyrova.

Azamat Tynaev, a media expert, believes that "influential clans primarily think of their communities, when selecting their candidates. It's not just that northerners vote for northerners, and southerners - for the southerners. This can be interpreted this way: northerners vote against southerners, and southerners - against northerners. Therefore, I would note the need to find a consensus leader, who could bring together voters in the south and in the north."

"Although the role of parliamentarism is high, the President remains the head of state. He is the personification and the symbol of the State. He represents the interests of the people of Kyrgyzstan. That is why those candidates, who will build their campaign, programmed on the ideas of regionalism, regional supremacy, may bring the country to the most undesirable situation. People now expect more of potential candidates," said Tynaev.

"If the electorate is fed with black PR, ideas of regional division, it will not bring any good result," said Igor Shestakov, a media expert. "Based on the socio-political situation, candidates must understand that their main platform should be to maintain the integrity of Kyrgyzstan and to make decisions in the operational, which would straighten socio-economic situation," said Shestakov.

Maksuda Aitieva, head of the "Osh Media Resource Center" public association, also worries about deterioration of relations between the North and the South. She believes that this largely depends on how the leaders, who are going to run for presidency, will behave, on which statements will be made by political parties, on how they will use the regional factor. "I am more afraid of our politicians than ordinary people," said Aitiev.

"Of course, there will be some problem: criminal and business environment influence. But I am most concerned about the ‘north-south' problem, because there is no leader that would satisfy all. There are leaders, selected according to various criteria. The biggest difficulty is to find things in common. It is hard to guess the mood of the people. But everybody understands that people want to live in peaceful and stable Kyrgyzstan", stressed Maksuda Aitieva.

Incitement of Interethnic Confrontation

Experts are also concerned that politicians may use slogans that exacerbate inter-ethnic relations. This is a dangerous risk that could lead to a destabilization of the situation, primarily in the south.

Tolekan Ismailova, head of the Human Rights Center "Citizens Against Corruption", said, "I see regional, separatist and transnational risks. But today's Kyrgyzstan is tired of all these problems. If we want to create institutions that, according to the Constitution, should give us an opportunity to elect freely, we should reform the Central Election Commission, civic education for people to understand new developments both in the Constitution and the Code 'On elections' in different languages, and everything should be fine. Post-conflict Kyrgyzstan now requires the use of good liberal, democratic instruments. I think our society is ready for it."

"There are many risks. We need a strong, active civil society, which would promote values, such as the right to elect and be elected, without violence and discrimination in Kyrgyzstan," said Tolekan Ismailova.

Tolekan Ismailova also noted that candidates for presidency should meet democratic criteria, and for that we must build our first step in the civil education campaign on clear, strong, honest, legitimate instruments.

Dinara Oshurahunova, head of the Coalition "For Democracy and Civil Society", said the following on this occasion, "I think that politicians will not incite inter-ethnic hatred, they will rather use nationalist slogans, in order to win popularity among various groups of voters. I think there will be attempts to use in the election campaign the issue of the June events, and it is an extremely sensitive issue for any ethnic groups in our country. Politicians must understand that the use of nationalist slogans is a very dangerous thing, especially for themselves. After all, for voters, it is much more important to see not populist slogans, but good program, which would pull the country out of the protracted crisis," said Dinara Oshurahunova.

According to Cholpon Djakupova, head of the Legal Clinic "Adilet", "repetition of the events, like the June tragedy or events in Maevka, it is hardly possible". But it is possible that during the election, representatives of Diasporas will undergo pressure, as politicians will try to involve them into confrontation between different political forces".

Interference of external forces

Almost all respondents noted the risk of external influence on the election that could lead to unpredictable consequences in the very near future.

Raya Kadyrova, the head of the Foundation "For International Tolerance", speaking about intervention of external forces, said: "As we are a politically dependent country, and this dependence is there because our political elites are unable to come to consensus and to resist external political influence, this allows outside forces influencing the situation in our country. Certainly, there will be external forces, which will support one or another candidate in the presidential election, and then this candidate will serve the interests of the party, which supported him. This, unfortunately, is inevitable. And it is not the fault of those countries, which are trying to influence us, it is the fault of our politicians"

"How will this influence be demonstrated? Primarily, in the financial and logistic support, as well as in information support through the media. Some candidates will be praised, other candidates will be presented in a negative way. And another moment is that the electorate will also be under the pressure, voting on the territory of other states, so that people would give their preference for one or another politician", said Raya Kadyrova.

Sheradil Baktygulov, expert on Public Administration, believes that "the risk that the Kyrgyz Republic cannot become a fully legitimate subject of international law is growing. A fully legitimate subject of international law is a sovereign state, which is independent, prosperous, non-"younger brother" of another "big brother", be it the U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey, China, India or some other country.

"From a legal point of view, the Constitution says that the country is a sovereign state. But this is not a guarantee against its actual becoming a puppet state. This is the case when the state actually does not work for people living on its territory. Instead, it promotes the interests of people from other countries. There have already been such facts in the history of Kyrgyzstan. Some elements of this happened during the rule of the first and second Presidents, when wide preferences were given to foreign businessmen. However, their profits were not used for the interests of our citizens", said Baktygulov.

According to Azamat Tynaev, media expert, external influence is one of the major risk factors. "It is no secret that against the background of our weakened state and socio-economic challenges, the political elite in Kyrgyzstan has become very vulnerable. The main thing is that this vulnerability would not become the basis for external control. There are many external players who can influence our internal events, in order to achieve manageability".

"But I think we should not exaggerate this factor either. As for our nearest foreign environment, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and China have friendly governments towards Kyrgyzstan. Among our closest partners, there are no such countries that would clearly lead unfriendly policies. Another question is how to rid of our excessive dependence, on how to wean them away from the acquired habit of looking at different foreign capitals. The way when the greatest merit of our government or the best evaluation of its work is done on the basis of the number of grants and loans received from foreign states are a dead-end road, which leads nowhere", stressed Tynaev.

"The problem must be solved not through debts remission and attraction of additional grants, but through changes in our economic situation, which means GDP growth, rising levels of welfare of our citizens", noted Azamat Tynaev.

Ulugbek Babakulov, Editor in Chief of the newspaper "MK Asia", also expressed his opinion on the role of external forces during the President's election: "Neighbors also bank on certain leaders. If we take Russia, they have nobody to bank on in our country, because there are the same old personalities on our political arena. Therefore, it is unclear whose candidature will be "advantageous". Introducing a new player is also disadvantageous, because it requires minimum five years to "promote" him as a real candidate. Therefore, they will have to bank on several players, from those available. Suppose, there is one million dollars, it will be divided between two, three or four leaders, one of whom wins, but the others will have to fulfill certain conditions for those who gave them money".

Sardar Bagishbekov, head of the public foundation"Voice of Freedom", commented this risk as follows: "I do not think there will be external interference. There are individual players, individual business representatives who have purely selfish, financial interests. Their interference is predictable enough. There will be infusions in either election race made by big companies or businessmen. These businessmen will in future ask for the dividend. These players need the market or resources of Kyrgyzstan. There is no high politics here, it's a question of money. External actors will invest in election campaign, but only in response to receiving favorable conditions for business. Russia or the U.S. will not interfere directly. In most cases, practice shows that certain representatives of business tend to influence politics"

Use of administrative resource

One of the serious risks of the upcoming presidential election, according to experts, could be the use of the so called administrative resource.

Kamchibek Tashiev, leader of the "Ata-Jurt" faction in the Jogorku Kenesh, talking about possible risks, said, "If the election will be held in accordance with our legislation, there will be no risk. But, of course, such campaigns as Presidential elections have always been held under the pressure of administrative resource. And if this happens again, there will be a great risk."

"But I think we must give people the opportunity to make their own choice, without any pressure. We must remember that none of our former Presidents felt happy after their terms ended," said Tashiev.

Felix Kulov, parliament member, leader of the "Ar-Namys" faction, emphasizes that, "Most importantly, administrative resource should not be used during the election." "We are ready to join the coalition, if it helps holding a fair election, so that all candidates could have equal opportunities. Otherwise, each of the candidates may begin to reproach those, who use administrative resources, and this will escalate the situation. And it is difficult to predict how this all will end. Therefore, it is desirable to hold an objective election."

Meanwhile, Maksuda Aitieva, executive director of the Osh Media Resource Center, noted that the upcoming elections would be a little different from the last parliamentary election. "I, for example, talked to people who voted 13, 6 and 8 times on Election Day. I cannot say that voting will be transparent, because there will still be different kinds of manipulation, various resources will be used."

Sardar Bagishbekov, head of the public foundation "Voice of Freedom", believes that administrative resource will be used by officials in districts. "If the governor of some oblast is a representative of a political party, then, of course, he will use all the resources to support the candidate from his party. It is a matter of party belonging, and who can pay and attract more people. No centralized administrative resource will be used, as it was during the 2007 parliamentary election. In essence, the intervention of the administrative resource on a large scale is impossible, because there is no direct authority and strong rigid vertical of power. For example, in Osh and Jalal-Abad, local authorities do not follow instructions of either the Parliament or the President."

According to Raya Kadyrova, president of PF "For International Tolerance", last year, during the parliamentary election, for the first time in Kyrgyzstan, administrative resource was used less, although it was still used. "What will happen this time? I don't think such an indiscriminate use of administrative resources, as it was under Bakiyev or under Akayev, is possible, as none of the political forces will allow it. This is a positive political development that political parties have learned to track, monitor and defend their interests."

"But they will still use some elements of the administrative resource, because too little time has passed, and it still remains in the "blood." Someone will do it even without receiving an order from the above, because he will try to present himself in a favorable light before his political leader. Someone will do it, because his bosses will order him to use this resource. But I want to reiterate that total use of administrative resources is impossible today, because the population will no longer tolerate it," noted Raya Kadyrova.

Igor Shestakov, a media expert, believes that there will be a novelty, which did not exist before. "Today, even those from the current government, who will participate in the election, will be limited in using administrative resource. Because since the late 1990s, it was not Akayev who won the election, but the administrative resource. The same was true during the last elections under Bakiyev. In a parliamentary form, where power structures consist of representatives of different parties, this risk is minimized. I do not particularly believe that a politician, who is in power and is going to run for Presidency, can secure his victory with the help of administrative resource. Now this tool will not work."

"People did not believe that politicians won in a fair struggle, precisely because they were engaged not only in corruption, but also because they actively used administrative resources. Now there are more opportunities for fair competition," said Igor Shestakov.

Tolekan Ismailova, head of the Human Rights Center "Citizens against corruption", believes that we should pay attention "to corruption and legal illiteracy - this is what should worry us all on the event of the presidential election. Public safety depends on it."

"Our analysis shows that civil society should be very active and responsible. It should not participate only in the supervisory process, as it was in April and June 2010." "Fair and decent elections depend on civil society. The most important thing is the requirement to observe all legal procedures, because any falsification is double violence and double discontent of the society," emphasized Ismailova.

Appeals to Change the Constitution

It is no secret that many politicians, wishing to participate in the election, do not hide their intention to change the Constitution of the country.

Dinara Oshurakhunova, leader of the Coalition "For Democracy and Civil Society", sees, among other risks, the risk of amending the Constitution. "Candidates that will run for the President's post will not agree to have the powers and functions, which are enshrined in the current Constitution. They are speaking about the need to change the Constitution already today, and they want to give more powers to the President."

According to Oshurakhunova, the sole reason for changing the Constitution is to expand the powers of the President. "Why should we change the Constitution? I do not see any other reasons for changing it. Now, we should raise the question of drawbacks in the Constitution, and I believe this is the sole reason for its amendment. In general, all changes and amendments will concern only the powers of the President and transformation from parliamentary republic to the Presidential. People who will fight for the Presidential post, do not agree with the powers of the President, which he has under the current Constitution, therefore, they will try to expand them, which will mean the transition toward Presidential republic."

"There will be many candidates on this election that do not accept the President's powers under the current Constitution. Some of them openly say that they will return to the presidential system. But will voters agree with that?" emphasized Dinara Oshurakhunova.

According to Sardar Bagishbekov, head of the PF "Voice of Freedom", "there are fewer supporters of the parliamentary republic today." "To some extent, people recognize the importance of these reforms in public administration. There is much disappointment related to the fact that there is no centralized power and effective control. In the south, central power authorities have almost no influence. This all make people think that it is necessary to return to the previous form of administration, i.e. presidential republic, and politicians will use these sentiments.

Unfortunately, some candidates will play on people's sentiments. They will say that there is destitution in the country and everything is so unstable because there is no owner with a ‘strong hand.' "Today we need a hardliner, people need him." Politicians will use such feelings and thoughts of people, pursuing their own aims. They will blame the Provisional government in failure; they will blame the Constitutional Council and Tekebayev for failed reforms. They will promote the idea of a return to a strong presidential form of governance, and many neighboring states will support it," said Bagishbekov.

It is quite possible that the Constitution will be changed again, maybe towards the presidential republic, said Anar Musabaeva, political analyst. "This will happen if there is no strong political destabilization in the country. We have already seen that there are many inconsistencies in the current Constitution; many contradictions. Another question is whether it will be a full revision of the Constitution or a return to a presidential republic. Or, there will be step-by-step changes. Everything will depend on the results of the election and on the views of the winner."

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