On 12 April 2007 the Institute for Public Policy hosted a round table “Assessment of political situation in Kyrgyzstan.” The discussion was organized in light of the ambiguous political situation after the beginning of the opposition’s protest demonstrations in the central square of Bishkek. (List of speakers).

The round table participants suggested that the current dynamics of political development have not been conducive to real political reforms.

The authorities once again demonstrated that they would only undertake reforms under intense pressure and only then when faced with a threat to its existence. The opposition, in its turn, has failed to provide a clear and legitimate idea, which will win support from the public.

The "continuous" opposition demonstration that started on 11 April has failed to gather as many people as opposition leaders anticipated. This coupled with the uncompromising position of opposition leaders, poses a threat to the possibility of productive political reforms. Having recognized a weakness in the opposition, authorities may not only refuse to consider the opposition’s constitution and other demands, but also resist the changes to the constitution suggested by the working group led by Prime Minister Atambaev.

According to the round table speakers, opposition leaders chose the wrong tactic for the April demonstrations, with no alternative exit strategies. The demands declared by the opposition ruled out the possibility of negotiations from the very beginning. “One can not expect Bakiev to talk, if the subject of negotiation is his resignation,” experts argued.

As a result, the opposition has failed so far to achieve its declared goals while strongly damaging the opposition movement in general. These demonstrations have exhausted the energy for protest in the public, and strongly discredited such forms of political protest as public demonstrations and hunger strike. “It is a tragedy when the hunger strike of 70 people triggers no reaction among the authorities or among ordinary people. This happened because this form of protest was used without a clear and legitimate idea,” round table participants said.

Neither the authorities nor the opposition should consider themselves a winner. There is a danger that the executive power, which has so far failed to become an effective institution, may decide that it can do anything with such a weak opposition. “If the authorities, and in this case President Bakiev, do not become active leaders of reforms (which does not seem realistic as of now), the protesters’ drive will not dissipate; moreover, it may increase in time,” experts suggested.

Special attention was paid to the role of Parliament in the process of constitutional reform. The current Parliament, which has already adopted two constitutions by the end of last year and is about to consider at least one more very soon, was designed by the former President, and does not represent a real political power configuration. According to experts, the Kyrgyz parliament was turned into an object of manipulation by various political groups and is not able to fulfill its proper role in promoting real reforms in the country.

At the same time, some round table participants noted that Parliament members themselves may initiate the dissolution of Parliament in autumn. Recently, the importance of clan and regional affiliation has been weakening, and party affiliation has been playing a greater role, experts suggested. There is already one party faction active in the Parliament (Atameken party), and two more are about to emerge (Union of Democratic Forces and Atajurt parties).

In the case of the constitution being changed and the role of party factions increasing in appointing a Prime Minister, existing MP groups may decide to initiate new parliamentary elections, in the belief they could win more seats in future elections. The emergence of party factions in the Parliament would become the most positive factor in recent political history in Kyrgyzstan, experts noted.

In general, the round table speakers suggested that for principal and effective political reforms, there is a need to cultivate a culture of law and the recognition of the rule of law by both the population and the political elite. Political leaders should demonstrate their ability to discuss things within a legal framework, respect the opinion of opponents and prevent personal motives from playing a major role in political struggle. The round table participants concluded that this is the key to overcoming political crises in Kyrgyzstan.