It is worth noting that the first effort of the Kurultai organization scheduled for the 29th of March failed. Justifications of the opposition leaders on this regard are divided. Some of the key reasons for postponing the Kurultai were listed: "vagueness about state of health of president Kurmanbek Bakiev, who was in Germany at that time, and the refusal of the government to provide facilities for holding the National Kurultai.

Upon announcement of the final date of the National Kurultai, civil society started actively discussing that the country would hear a name of a single opposition leader at this gathering. For example, the event organizers did not deny that somebody out of the opposition representatives could bring up a similar idea; however, according to them, this question was not jointly discussed and was not included in the agenda.

At that moment Kyrgyz analyst, Valentine Bogatyryov said the following: "They could announce somebody's name, but it does not mean that they would necessarily become a leader of the opposition". At the same time, Valentine Bogatyryov has emphasized that he tends to the opinion that indeed the country "will get the leader in 5-7 years". "Up until 2010 some political debuts could happen and the demonstration of some proto-leaders, young and new figures, who will show something different. But this "different" would be very new and too slow on the uptake. It will take some time to let those people rise to a certain socially acceptable, socially recognizable and understandable level. Anyway, this leader is walking somewhere among us now, and maybe everyone knows him. I want to say that people do not win - ideas win. And when a certain idea appears and all the activities will be concentrated around this idea, maybe this very idea will be personified in some person or in a certain group that will slowly be surrounded by recognition of the crowd, etc. "I think that here we need some social necessity; the idea, which would be enough to make people follow it. But this kind of necessity, to my mind, is absent now,"- said Valentine Bogatyryov.

Indeed, the opposition did not discuss issue of electing a single leader at the National meeting. Instead, the most critical problems of the state were included on the agenda, which then were reflected in the Kurultai's Resolution that stated the following:

1. The National Kurultai decided to recognize the social-economic and political situation as an extremely hard one. Increasing costs for food products, fuel and lubricants, public utilities, and transportation costs are worsening the nation's living conditions. Therefore, for their improvement we are calling the government and the president to take urgent measures.

2. To recognize work of the Kyrgyz Republic Government as an unsatisfactory.

3. To recognize results of the past referendum of the 21st of October, 2007 as illegitimate due to numerous frauds, violations and manipulation of results.

4. To recognize results of early Parliamentary Elections of the 16th of December 2007 as illegitimate due to the self-willed behavior of local self-government bodies, the fabrication of election protocols and the absence of an open announcement of the election results as the State Legislation requires, and, accordingly, to recognize all laws adopted by this Jogorku Kenesh session as invalid.

5. To call all of the KR Central Election and Referendum Organization Committee members accountable including committees in the provinces and regions for the referendum held on the 21st of October, 2007.

6. On the threshold of the upcoming race for Deputies of local government bodies, to change the composition of the Central Election Committee of the KR and to ensure an equal representation of the opposition parties in it.

7. To stop the process of privatization of energy resources, natural resources, schools and universities with the authority of the KR president, Kurmanbek Bakiev.

8. To put an end to infringement of Mass Media's rights, and freedom of speech, to persecution of people standing up for their rights and to their groundless arrests.

9. If requirements of the National Kurultai's resolution will not be met, there will be meetings and protest campaigns held all over the country.

***

Ex-State Secretary of the KR, Ishenbai Abdurazakov commenting on the Kurultai's results called our attention to the fact that the country's officials must take seriously the problems announced by citizens and participants of the Kurultai and draw appropriate conclusions from them.

«The authorities shall not toughen their positions using their official privileges. If that happens, an even bigger split could occur in society in future. If the authorities act flexibly and wisely, then they will be able to ease some aspects that the general population is unhappy about now," - stated a public figure.

«I have been at many events, but that was the first time I have seen such an indignant mood in the audience and such support given to speakers; and that made this Kurultai different. In general, the meeting participants were very constructive. At the Kurultai, I have seen that the nation is still alive, people do not agree with the usurpation of their rights and are ready to fight for their own future", - said Mr. Abdurazakov.

«We are wandering in a political space and can not find our path of development, but the Kurultai became an effort of the opposition to break the ring of uncertainty and to determine ways for our further development", - commented ex-secretary of the Security Council Miroslav Niyazov.

Speaker of the Public Parliament, Abdygany Erkebaev, gave a very high assessment of the event. He noted that for the first time during the last three years the opposition managed "to organize such a large and a significant event in a calm manner".

"I would like to thank the authorities and express my gratitude for allowing us to organize it after series of obstacles" - added the speaker.

Mr. Erkebaev said that organizers of the National Kurultai disappointingly stressed the fact that the authorities have not responded to an official invitation to participate in the event, however he expressed his hope that they would diligently study the Resolution and take appropriate measures.

If official authorities ignore the document passed, as Abdygany Erkebaev stated, there is a high probability that a few radical statements verbalized at the Kurltai will get the support of the majority of the general public and the country will face wide-scale protest campaigns.

"The opposition can think and say many things but we have political pluralism and the government should not pay attention to these things" - mentioned Zainidin Kurmanov, JK Deputy, member of "Ak-Jol" party.

"We have read everything written in the Resolution in newspapers over the last 17 years; thus this Resolution has nothing in it that would stir up the public or be perceived as something revolutionary" - said the public representative.

"It was emotion that prevailed in the actions of opposition leaders. Regarding the Resolution, then I do not see that depth in it being adherent to politics. For example, I do not think that all two thousand participants of the Kurultai had a clear understanding of the energy resolutions; however they have voted for a Resolution. Generally speaking, I saw nothing there except the fanning of flames" - said Zainidin Kurmanov.

"In this resolution I see the identification of problems existing in the country; however it does not mention how they should be resolved. A better way to put it would be to say that the solution is listed in point 9, which contains a warning to the authorities should they fail to take some measures. But we have gone through it; therefore I think that we do not need either campaigns, demonstrations or protests. Instead we need the serious analytical work of the government, parliament and civil society, in general" - a member of "Ak-Jol" party stated.

***

After the organization of the Kurultai opposition leaders stressed that the Public Gathering became an indicator that the opposition is still alive and still enjoys the large support of the population. In their turn, some experts and political figures have expressed their hope that in the future the opposition will continue their political struggle in the same civilized way and both parties will soon reach a consensus.

However the following events gave reason for the Kurultai organizers to assert that the authorities do not want to build a dialogue with the opposition or to consider its claims. So, on April 21st, members of "For Justice" movement received a warning from the KR Prosecutor General that noted that during the organization of the Kurultai and the adoption of the Resolution, the opposition has violated requirements of the State Constitution. Moreover, the warning emphasizes that if members of the opposition movement commit the same violations again, they will be accountable in compliance with the current legislature of the Kyrgyz republic.

A warning of the Prosecution Generation was received by six Kurultai organizers. They were: Azimbek Beknazarov, Omurbek Tekebaev, Temir Sariev, Abdygany Erkebaev, Mukar Cholponbaev and Alikbek Djekshenkulov. The last one commenting on the initiative of the supervision body has stressed that "I think the prosecution office of Bishkek city is executing an order of the White House in order to frighten participants of the "For Justice" public movement and members of the Public Parliament".

"But the authorities won't manage to do anything. We are very decisive and will continue the struggle for justice, freedom and human rights in compliance with the legislature. We intend to continue protecting interests of the public and the government" - stated Alikbek Djekshenkulov.

***

April 2008 became known in Kyrgyzstan as a time of active work of the Jogorku Kenesh on the range of major issues, which raised a wave of criticism on behalf of the opposition and civil society.

Thus, on April 11, the Parliament put a final point in the situation of four Issykkul recreation hotels. That happened after Jogorku Kenesh ratified an agreement to transfer these objects to Kazakhstan.

On the same day, Jogorku Kenesh ratified a draft bill "About the ratification of the Agreement between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Kazakhstan about the Kyrgyz-Kazakh state border signed on January 15, 2001 in Astana city" signed by Kurmanbek Bakiev on April 24.

These matters have caused a sharp negative reaction of the public, especially, in Issykkul province.

***

In April, the Jogorku Kenesh also touched upon issues related to the energy resources of the country.

On April 16, a relative committee of the Jogorku Kenesh made a decision that henceforth the Government has a right to independently approve a privatization program without public representatives.

The first to react to this were leaders of the civil society sector. On April 17, they conducted emergency civil consultations on the privatization of the energy system with the involvement of JK Deputies, representatives of political parties and NGOs. The Emergency hearing resulted in the Resolution, wherein meeting participants appealed to the President, Government and Parliament with a kind request to stop the adoption of bills concerning the energy industry until organization of the following activities:

- Organization of an independent audit and independent expertise of the activity of the energy complex of the Kyrgyz Republic since 1991;

- Analysis of reasons leading the energy system of the country into crisis/bankruptcy;

- Review of human resources policy and making people accountable that have let the crisis of the energy resources system of the Kyrgyz Republic occur;

- Organization of public expertise in the legislative framework on the privatization of energy sector and National Energy Program (NEP);

- Organization of a wide scale public information campaign about the intentions of the KR Governments on privatization issues and its possible social Consequences;

- To oblige the KR Government to widely publicize a crisis program on overcoming social and economic consequences of energy crisis;

- To recommend international donors that have participated in the development of NEP (National Energy Program) to provide civil society with their recommendations and suggestions addressed to the KR Government on reforming energy system (ADB and others);

- Wide-scale civil consultations on the privatization of energy system will take place in all regions of the country for achievement of transparency and participation of citizens in the decision making process.

Leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, Dinara Oshurahunova, commenting initiative of the NGO representatives noted that her main objective was to make sure "official bodies and Jogorku Kenesh will conduct hearings on privatization openly and with the recruitment of independent experts, while the population would have plenty of information about the true intentions of the government".

"If people fail to receive reliable information about things happening now, they will start protests. Our people are very patient, but if they get sick and tired of this, he will come out and will destroy everything, but we do not want that to happen" - stresses the Coalition Leader.

However, the very next day, on April 18, the Deputies' Chamber supported a decision of the relative committee and has authorized the Government with the right to independently approve privatization programs without the participation of the Jogorku Kenesh.

Tamerlan Ibraimov, a Kyrgyz political figure, commented on the decision of public representatives by stating the following:"I think that Deputies acted improperly because Jogorku Kenesh should have taken responsibility for this step and resolved the issue independently".

"We should understand clearly that all decisions in the Parliament are made by the "Ak Jol" faction, which is a pro-presidential party" - says the expert.

"I do not want blame state management beforehand for hidden interests regarding the decision on strategic objects because there is no evidence. However, when such issues lack clarity that causes doubts. We would very much like the authorities to introduce clearness in committed actions so people can get answers," - noted Ibraimov.

"Today the authorities do everything they want and it is useless to confront them; they do not consider anyone's opinion. All key decisions are made in a small circle" - this is how Azimbek Beknazarov, ex JK Deputy, has commented on the decision of public representatives.

Some opposition representatives have expressed an opinion that Parliament's decision will contribute to deterioration of relationship between the government and opposition that will result in organization of wide scale protest campaigns all over the country in the next few months.

In his turn, Iskhak Masaliv, leader of Communists of Kyrgyzstan is confident that it won't happen.

"In the context of on-going public discussions on the expectations of spring activity in the near future, I do not think that they will be so thrilling and wide-scale since the government has trust" - emphasized public representative.

The opinion of Kyrgyzstan facing no political threats in the near future is also shared by "Ak-Jol" party member, Zainidin Kurmanov.

"I think there will be no fall demonstrations like some people are talking about. Certain conditions are required for organizing them" - stated the public representative.

"Today the ruling elite is not split; social issues are being resolved. Increase in revolts in this way is political adventurism. As results of a public poll in 2007 conducted by Frederic Ebert Fund showed that public expectations are far removed from the ideas suggested by the opposition" - noted Zainidin Kurmanov.

***

One more important event that raised serious concerns in the opposition and a number of NGOs was an appeal of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Fuel Resources of the Kyrgyz Republic to the Parliament with a kind request to approve a package of documents which foresaw removing the status of a ‘special object' from the cascade of Toktogul Power Stations and the National High Voltage Power Transmission Line.

On April 22nd, this matter was introduced into the agenda of the Jogorku Kenesh Committee for Fuel and Energy Complex and Resource Management. But unexpectedly Ministry of Industry and Energy Resources declined its initiative. Thus, the above-listed objects have retained their special status. Many government opponents justify it saying that the removal of special status could have led to serious public discontent and could have escalated the political situation.

According to Erkinbek Alymbekov, ex Vice-Speaker of Jogorku Kenesh, the Ministry of Industry and Energy Resources has refused its initiative "because it [initiative] has obviously endorsed the unprincipled politics of the government towards energy resource institutions. The focus of attention on this initiative could have led to a rise in public discontent and could have roused the country." Alymbekov stressed.

On April 23rd, Jogorky Kenesh held Parliamentary Hearings with the participation of civil society representatives. It was planned for the Ministry of Industry and Energy Resources to present a program for the future development of energy resources, while participants would express their views and parties would reach a consensus.

Meanwhile, after completion of the hearings, civil society leaders made statements that they were "invited to observe only as a formality"; while in reality no one was planning to listen to them.

Thus, a human rights activist, Aziza Abdirasulova in her statement on the results of the event, said that civil society representatives were invited to the Parliament for show but they initially did not have any opportunity to influence the decision of the Ministry of Industry and Energy Resources.

Besides, the "Kylym Shamy" leader has called attention to the fact that the government is doing its best to hide as much information about privatization process as possible from the public; and that is only doing harm to the government because that could herald a citizens' revolt.

Next day, on April 24, a discussion of the National Energy Resources Program for years 2008-2010 and the Fuel and Energy Complex Development Strategy up to the year of 2025 was included in the legislative agenda of the Jogorku Kenesh.

To the surprise of their Parliament peers, social democrats and communists left the conference hall ignoring the voting procedure. Further, while commenting on the future of state energy resources, one Kyrgyzstan Communists Party member, Anash Seitkaziev, stated to those gathered that the key energy resource objects will be transferred to a known Kazakh oligarch.

"It is already known that Kyrgyz power companies will be given to Alexander Mashkevich who paid money in 2007, and our government is forced to pay him back", - remarked Anash Seitkaziev.

However, the same day a secretariat of the Communists faction disseminated information that the Party of Kyrgyz Communists have no information about this matter and an that the opinion that the energy resource sector of Kyrgyzstan is being purchased by Alexander Mashkevich belongs solely to Deputy Seitkaziev.

Commenting on the boycott declared by the two factions, Jogorku Kenesh speaker Adahan Madumarov called it "a political irresponsibility", while the head of the Fuel and Energy Complex and Resource Management committee, JK Deputy, Yuri Danilov emphasized that "getting up and leaving without suggesting any alternative is the easiest way".

The "Ak-Jol" faction gave a majority vote for a National Energy Resources Program and Fuel and Energy Complex Development Strategy. 64 Deputies have voted for a positive decision.

***

However the last point in the series of important political events of this month was made by the opposition. On April 26th, it has planned a mass protest campaign in Issykkul province. They foresee the organization of a protest march along both sides of the Issykkul Lake from Tyup village to Balykchi.

Thus, organizers of the event and opposition leaders have united with the local public and decided to state their discontent at the transfer of four Issykkul recreation hotels and Kar-Kyra to Kazakhstan.

On the protest campaign day, according to one of its organizers, Jeken Shamaraliev, a coordinator of "Kyrgyz Patriots" party, about two thousand Kyrgyzstan citizens unsatisfied with the government's politics will arrive at Issykkul.

"These will be members of political parties and opposition movements. Moreover, on the way, inhabitants of villages will surely join us, therefore we cannot give an exact number of the possible participants of the protest campaign. It will all become clear on the day " - noted Mr. Sharamaliev.

The number of marching protesters according to activists of the opposition movement will include all current opposition leaders including Omurbek Tekebaev, Azimbek Beknazarov, Alikbek Dzenshenkulov and others.

Jeken Shamaraliev did not excluded the idea that protesters will go to Bishkek with a protest march within the scope of this campaign. However, by now as Party member said, this issue is still open.

***

Kyrgyzstan will face serious political cataclysms if the government does not find a way of dealing with public discontent - says Emilbek Kaptagaev, leader of "Uluu Birimdik" National Democratic Party.

A political activist has mentioned that discontent on Issykkul could grow into a wide-scale protest all over the country. In this regard, he emphasizes, not simply government bodies should explain the real situation to the general public but the President of the country personally.

"People want to talk not with numerous civil servants but personally with the head of the state. They want to hear from him what is happening in reality. If the President fails to take any measures on explaining the position of the government in the near future then as people say, they will organize protest campaigns" - stated Emilbek Kaptagaev.

However the opinion of some part of the public that the country is in a crisis now, and is facing new unrest, is not shared by everyone.

"There is no crisis. Our country has passed through it during the last seven years. Moreover, the state overcame it independently, without any external "support". I would more likely call the current phase a rehabilitation" - commented Kyrgyz analyst, Valentine Bogatyryov.

Muratbek Imanaliev, the President of the Institute for Public Policy (IPP) gave his assessment of the latest political events and forecast of a possible development of the relationship between government and opposition.

"The relationship between the government and the opposition today rose to the level of metaphoric shameful relations. I want to say that there is no politics as it is in Kyrgyzstan, only certain application of political technologies. Therefore, a field, wherein the opposition and government are fighting is not a place where competitors battle out ideas, plans and programs but a space where the main motif and discussion are the mistakes of the government. The opposition frequently criticized the executive branch of government for flaws without giving any alternative. Moreover it does it subjectively and speculatively. Thus with this situation, regarding the further development of relations, I, frankly speaking, do not see any constructive ideas and any suggestions for developing the country are totally absent" - the expert said.

"At present, I see a negotiation between the government and opposition, where people are trying to advance their own interests and get individual dividends. Besides, we have to have a comprehensive understanding that power and opposition lack a broad active social platform. Practically,actual people supporting the government or speaking against it do not exist. Citizens are currently in a political prostration and apathy; people are more concerned about the resolution of their problems. Furthermore, that is happening alongside an increase of migration. De-facto, that means that a specific part of citizens located in the country do not live here but are simply present" - stated Muratbek Imanaliev.

"Currently, there are many different assumptions that spring will bring political cataclysms or that it will happen in fall. In my opinion it will not happen as a constructive dialogue between the government and opposition and it won't happen in the near future" - concluded Muratbek Imanaliev.

29.04.2008