"Now we see that currently an active search is on for a real, not formal, space uniting one or another force full of discontent and concern for the politics of the White House. It is true for a wide range from a radical Revcom to loyal "United Kyrgyzstan", - says an article by the famous Kyrgyzstani analyst, Valentine Bogatyryov, which the BPC provides here for your attention.

Little time is left until the political lull in Kyrgyzstan comes to an end. And it is not that the current political opposition, whatever it is, cannot remain in the current situation. The slow fading of information, the impotence of ideas and organizational flabbiness are direct paths to ultimate political obscurity. This prospective development of events hardly suits the majority of politicians that associate themselves with a counter balance to the authorities. And this camp includes the majority of those people that could be classified as politicians in our country.

With a skeptical attitude towards the idea, and especially implementation of the intention to create a Public Parliament, today it is practically the only formalized public space where the opposition can give notice about itself. Therefore many politicians are participating in it although they recognize all its disadvantages. One might state that the Public Parliament served its role becoming a certain pit stop in the big political race.

"Now we see that currently an active search is on for a real, not formal, space uniting one or another force full of discontent and concern for the politics of the White House. It is true for a wide range of actors, from a radical Revcom to loyal "United Kyrgyzstan."

It is obvious that besides the survival of institutions there are, at least, two main reasons for the upcoming activation of politicians' actions.

One of them is related to an upcoming deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country, and at that it is little related to the actions of a current government. To be exact, then, it almost does not depend on them. Nevertheless politically it is very easy to attribute all problems to authorities and successfully use them for increasing one's popularity and political weight. It is a sin for any political force to miss this chance. And no matter how much people talk about upcoming challenges bringing external determination and no matter how much people say that the patriotic position in these situations is public mobilization but not confrontation,  there will hardly be any political force, except, certainly "Ak Jol," that will not throw its stone.

Another reason for increasing activity is upcoming Presidential Elections. The Presidential and not Local Kenesh elections.

Of course, the most prudent political parties will try to use elections to the Local Kenesh, if not to establish their influence at a grassroots level, the probability of which they hardly believe themselves, then at least for a rehearsal prior to bigger elections - Presidential ones. This is a good chance for them to fine-tune their organization and technology of action.

But the main goal that already defines the motivation and logic of the actions of a majority of politicians today is the Presidential Elections in 2010. It does not take any effort already today to name the candidates for President in 2010. Look at the members of the managing body of the Public Parliament; add up several names of leaders of political organizations that are not part of it and three people from a social-democratic party and you will get a full list of candidates. That I think will be completed by two or three young leaders and two or three people that will slam government doors. All these names are known today.

The program of the election campaign is also known. Just as with the former President, it will mainly be founded not upon the idea of state development but on the idea that the current head of the state should leave.

The upcoming socio-economic crisis forms a good context for starting such a campaign. The President will be blamed for all problems starting with the world price rise for energy products and house loans in the USA. Those measures that Kurmanbek Bakiev is now taking for economic improvement and securing growth will be interpreted as selling national wealth and disrupting the economic foundation of the government, while political reforms will be seen as a transition to a dictatorship.

In this aspect, the upcoming autumn will be a start-up action. Many experienced politicians understand that and that's why they hurry to prepare for it. Objectives for autumn 2008 and spring 2009 are divided by classic Bolshevik tradition into a minimum-program and a maximum-program. The maximum program is clear - to achieve the dismissal of Bakiev. The minimum-program is to bring him to elections in the worst position possible.

However it is worth stating one important change in the political mindset. If one or one and a half years ago anyone in the opposition camp or in the government did not even think that Kurmanbek Bakiev could compete for a second term, now the situation is completely different. No one has doubts that current President will run for the office in 2010 and not everyone thinks that he will not manage to do that. Let alone one or one and a half years ago! Even several months ago when there was a small hint of a disease, there were utmost plans for Bakiev's resignation.

Due to all these reasons it is worth expecting that upcoming year will bring a slash of political activity. That is a political logic.

But there are the grounds to consider that it will not prevail over other events taking place in the upcoming autumn, winter and spring. It seems like a real life will seriously interfere with the world of political games.

Back in January of this year in his appeal to a new Parliament, Kurmanbek Bakiev, despite a Presidential logic of seeing no problems, suddenly started talking about challenges that are ahead for our country. That was the conclusion of a deep economic analysis held by Presidential Experts in the fall of last year after a price rise that frightened everyone. In spring, the World Bank rang the alarm, analysis of which also demonstrated that the country would face challenging times. In May, speaking in front of residential secretaries of Ministries, Kurmanbek Bakiev has openly stated that consequence of global economic issues for Kyrgyzstan will be much more serious than we thought and will come faster than expected, therefore we will have to tighten our belts.

It became evident that measures taken from the beginning of this year for changes of economic rules in the country and for forming a new economic policy are definitely late and to a certain extent are not sufficient. The pace of economic reorganization does not advance as quickly as the world economic crisis.

We see that the curve of price rises and the inflation rate are going and will continue going up steeply for some time, while the curve of real public income and state financial resources is going steeply down. This chart indicates that the country is facing a challenging time and in the best case within the upcoming year the government and population will go through serious financial issues.

The first ones to feel this were civil servants responsible for forming the income part of the budget. They started raising the issue of finance deficits and a future budget hole. Though they did it with a clear goal: to secure their own back. But the most dangerous was that they started suggesting economic reform and to return to primarily fiscal technologies of ensuring growth of the budget's income. That threatened the adoption of a new tax code significantly lightening tax burden for businessmen. Parliamentary social-democrats, not understanding what a critical parameter time is in the implementation of economic measures, have unwillingly played into hands of the civil servants. Yes, the tax code has been up for adoption since January 1^st but the delay in adopting it was due to threats that the suggested draft code would be eliminated by those for whom a new taxation system would jeopardize an easy way of implementing their responsibilities and sometimes even the security of their personal income.

Economic reforms faced serious obstacles among the elite of the social sphere. In correspondence with the idea of reforms, they have significantly lost state support, at least in those spheres that were not directly related to the provision of public needs: in science and higher education. Naturally, attempts at reform here were met extremely negatively and existent draft bills have not been passed yet.

The largest resistance was caused by the privatization issue in those spheres where it was planned already ten years ago but has not been finished. This issue became a subject of enormous political and ideological speculation that is now entering a hot zone.

These twists and turns of economic innovations are interesting because they prove and indicate emergence of a real economic politics for President Bakiev. It is clear that in essence this is a politics of a market regulation as a default politics, which has proved its historical advantages world wide.

Debates around key principles of official economic politics show that there is no other alternative which would allow the country to overcome a situation of a global crisis and stagnation of its own economy, which could lead the country to a development trajectory. The only existing suggestion on the market of ideas is a socialistic method of regulating economics but it is not based on real laws of life but on the concept of an "honest state," where "honest" socialist leaders are ruling. I will not talk about the honesty of our leaders, including socialists, but will elaborate on the idea. The concept of an "honest" state for all its ideological and ethical attractiveness is nothing more than a historical myth. It has never existed anywhere in reality and "honest" regimes were those regimes where tough rules of democratic (or a dictatorial) control were practiced.

But the fact is that the acuteness of the today's momentum is not determined by a collision of choice between socialism and a free market. Kyrgyzstan does not have this option today.

Today a politics of reform is facing a challenge: whether it will be implemented or not. That is why we say that the current "opposition" is not a political subject: unfortunately it does not participate in decision making on this important issue. In the best case, it is only creating a context and impulse for the real participants.

There are two key issues with regards to which self-identification and political identification are taking place in Kyrgyzstan. These are issues of choosing a model for the future.

The first one is related to the ratio of national and borrowed concepts in the development model as well as an understanding of what national means: is it a normative borrowing from the past or we should talk about new modern Kyrgyz people and if so, what are they?

Obviously development is only secured by searching for a new Kyrgyz path and not conservation of the old or a denial of national identity in favor of a global or a regional one.

The second issue is issue about structure of the society, not overall but a certain transit period; what principles it is based upon: social support or social competence.

Evidently, development is only secured by a social competence, while social support is of course necessary and ethical but it resolves other objectives.

This is a choice. And correspondingly, willingly or unwillingly but finally everyone is distributed into two camps: supporters of development and opponents of the state's development.

The risk of the upcoming autumn and spring comes down to the fact that the solution to this issue will be accompanied by a mass discontent with the deterioration of living standards, which is taking place now and will strengthen in the upcoming time. That would be the third public uprising after the Aksy events and the March 2005 uprising.

The centers of discontent will be of a local nature but they will be everywhere. Their energizers will be those who suffered the most as a result of the economic crisis: pensioners, the unemployed, utility communities, professional groups and drivers that heavily depend on energy resources. In this environment and movement we will see the emergence of new political leaders and new unions.

If power manages to prepare measures and itself to persuade people of the rightness of its course and its perspective then it will not only save itself but will save something much more important - hope for better times and for a better future for the country.

If this discontent will be used for yet another change of power then we will have to refuse such hopes for a long time, if not for ever.