"I am almost sure that until the spring of 2010 there will be no dissolution of the parliament”, said Tamerlan Ibraimov, Kyrgyz political scientist, in his interview. He shared his opinion on how political events in the country would develop in the fall and spring, what was the state of political forces in Kyrgyzstan, what were the opportunities for the dialogue between the government and the opposition, and what determined the probability of the parliament’s dissolution.

- How could you describe the current political life in Kyrgyzstan? What major political events can be expected in the fall and spring? What do we have to fear?

Tamerlan Ibraimov: After the President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced his plan to reform the public administration system, significant part of the political elite will be occupied by the problems of survival, maintaining their positions or finding new niches for themselves. Those are complex problems that require strength, energy and resources. Especially having in mind that the first stage will be followed by the second one, as the President promised. So the current autumn, winter and, probably, spring will be marked by reform.

What we should fear is that the reform may yield negative results. I fully agree with the President that government officials think primarily of their personal profit, and then of the public welfare. It is true of virtually every official in Kyrgyzstan, as, indeed, in any other country in the world.

Therefore, the task of reforming the system of governance should be, first of all, putting an official under the control of another official or politician, and second, under the control of the public. The first task can be achieved through the formation of the checks and balances system of three branches of power and further optimization of the bureaucratic apparatus, and the second task can be achieved through ensuring the freedom of speech and access to information.

Bringing such reform to its logical conclusion is an extremely difficult task. Changing the structure of the government, dismissing ministers and recruiting new ones is the first, perhaps, the easiest step. Then it is necessary to carry out the complex repetitive work on the introduction of new rules for the government, establishment and adaptation of new principles of the government's work and so on. Political solutions for the system of checks and balances and ensuring the freedom of speech are even more difficult tasks. Thus, due to the multi-stage character and ambiguity of the ongoing reform, the current period can be a real breakthrough for the country or, on the contrary, cause disappointment to the citizens of the Republic.

- How would you assess the viability of the Kyrgyzstan opposition at this stage? What is its potential?

Tamerlan Ibraimov: The opposition in Kyrgyzstan exists and will exist. It is necessary for the effective functioning of the state. I think that the political forces that are now in power understand it, as they used to be in political opposition as well.

Today the opposition in Kyrgyzstan is heterogeneous. It has been weakened after the elections of 2007 and 2009. But, as you know, the periods of recession are always followed by the periods of rise. I have no doubt that the opposition in Kyrgyzstan has prospects. I am more interested to know what force will lead this movement, and when it will have a real chance to come to power. This raises many questions, first of all, to the opposition itself. What can it offer the people in the economic, governance, social and other spheres?

It is clear that there are many problems in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps, these problems are the basis of the protest potential, which the opposition can always use. That is, if it is able to offer a program to address current problems, which is truly interesting for the people, it has real chances to significantly improve its rating and claim power in future. An important issue is leadership. It also requires new trends and approaches.

- Do you think it is possible for the government and the opposition to sit at the negotiation table? What and whom does it depend on? Which result would it bring?

Tamerlan Ibraimov: I do not see any subject for negotiation in the current situation. I think that negotiations can be conducted when the parties are relatively equal or when each of them has something to suggest. The current power and the opposition are players in different weight categories, and therefore, they have nothing to say to each other. However, this does not mean that it will be always like that. Kyrgyzstan is a sufficiently dynamic country, and the public mood can also change rapidly.

- What can you say about the possible dissolution of the parliament? What do various political factions think of it?

Tamerlan Ibraimov: It is difficult to predict if the parliament will be dissolved or not. It depends on many factors and, above all, on the mood of the power. On the one hand, there is no need to change the parliament. This parliament is absolutely predictable and manageable, and, therefore, contriving new elections is just a waste of money.

On the other hand, in all probability, there are political forces that do not participate in the current pyramid of power or feel that their role is inadequate for their potential. Probably, these forces lobby the dissolution of the Parliament. The fact that the idea of dissolution of the Parliament is being discussed on different levels proves that such forces do exist.

Thus, the probability of dissolution of the parliament can be conditionally assessed as 50/ 50. Personally, I would not say that a particular variant would be realized. When the experts discussed who would be the Prime minister, no one spoke of Daniyar Usenov, but he became the Prime minister. This illustrates that it is difficult to predict in our politics, especially at this long, by our standards, period as the spring of next year. I am almost sure that until the spring of 2010 there will be no dissolution of the parliament.

The interview was prepared by Dina Tokbaeva